In my very recent book in Italian L’Era del FinTech (‘The FinTech era’), I tried to figure out some key trends that will reshape the retail banking industry in the next few years, triggered by the arrival of the fintech era. This is quite a hard task given the sheer amount of changes that are happening at all levels (consumer habits, market dynamics, technology, regulation, demographics), and the inevitable cross-interaction among these forces.
Anyhow, the first rule to build the future is to have a vision. It’s simple: no vision, no future. Therefore, I gave it a try on the basis of my strongest beliefs, and built on what I’ve seen, done and studied in the last few years. The list that you will find is also built on a set of 10 interviews I held with some of the top industry experts and influencers (which are included in the book, such as Yoni Assia, Mariano Belinky, Anne Boden, Rob Findlay, Nick Hungerford, Brett King, Michal Panowicz, Matteo Rizzi, Chris Skinner, and Andres Wolberg-Stok).
One key warning for everyone that helped me in this attempt: never forget what Bill Gates once said: “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.” May I add that, at the same time, don’t think that everything will change in a snapshot. It took over 20 years to give birth to the internet in the configuration the world is used to, but then it changed everything.
Therefore, my attempt is to focus more on the mid-term trends in order to provide a map to become oriented. What are the key trends? I’m sure you’ll find some you may agree with and some you may not, and you may add some additional topics I omitted. Nevertheless, this is what I believe is very, very likely to happen:
- The arrival of the Silicon Valley big guys.
- The growth of Open APIs and marketplace banking.
- The ‘fintegration’: everything will be fintech.
- The growing up of millenials, and the new generations.
- The explosion of big data and artificial intelligence.
- The rise of one-to-one banking.
- Everywhere/anytime banking, and the IoT.
- Real-time, new, fast and secure processing, and distributed ledgers.
- Financial inclusion and the rise of South and East.
Some of them will take longer to impact, while some will be faster, like for instance what will bring newer, faster/real-time payments. The key trends are not in chronological order, but they have all started and may have different deployment patterns based on geography, since the key legacies of the industry and consumer habits and demographics – the starting, structural points – vary much according to region.
I will shortly explain and investigate these trends in my next few posts, so stay with me if you’re interested. Meanwhile, I await your preferences and comments.
– This article is reproduced with kind permission. Some minor changes have been made to reflect BankNXT style considerations. Roberto’s new book is available on Amazon. Main image: kentoh, Shutterstock.com